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Persistent non-OPEC volume growth poses a challenge. Get our latest OPEC and non-OPEC supply forecasts.
OPEC+ output cuts hasten market tightening
OPEC’s plan for production cuts signals a desire to support prices, even if the battle to wrest control of the market seems barely half won.
In any commodity market, the marginal supplier makes hay when the sun shines. Oil prices are rampant, but tight oil is not behaving quite as expected. I caught up with R.T. Dukes, Head of US Lower 48 oil supply.
The firmer oil price we expect can only embolden the already resurgent US tight oil industry which is on course to displace the 1 million b/d OPEC has cut within the year. Three main aspects of the decision stand out.
The OPEC+ ‘deal of the century’ last weekend changes oil market dynamics in the short run. Find out more in this week's Edge.
Will oil demand growth recover in 2020? Is global supply still growing apace? How is US tight oil investment and production being affected by negative investor sentiment? Have the production cuts of 2019 balanced the market? Do they need to be extended or adjusted? Will fundamentals or geopolitics determine oil prices? We answer some of the big questions on OPEC’s agenda ahead of its December meeting in Vienna.
Why have oil prices come under renewed downward pressure? Our Macro Oils team, led by Ed Rawle, sees three main reasons.
What’s the most unexpected outcome three years on from the price crash? There are a few contenders. OPEC’s zealous adherence to production restraint is right up there. US tight oil is another, briefly inconvenienced by low prices but now embarking on a second great phase of growth.
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
The coronavirus outbreak has derailed OPEC+, thrown the oil market into turmoil and sent an already unloved sector into freefall. What are the implications?
Arresting the explosive growth of US tight oil was a clear target of the price war after the OPEC+ meeting collapsed in March. What's been the effect on drilling and investment? How much will production fall and how quickly? Will tight oil recover and get back on a growth path? Find out more in this week's Edge.
Where new oil supply to 2030 will come from and what it costs
Today’s geopolitical temperature is close to boiling point. So why haven’t oil prices leapt in response, as we’ve seen in the past?
What are the upstream investment strategies of big Gulf producers? And how much are they spending? Find out here. With analysis from Simon Flowers and Jessica Brewer.
What's driven the rally, what is the outlook for supply and demand fundamentals in 2022, and how will geopolitics, including the Russia/Ukraine crisis, play out?
We've had the best year for the oil and gas industry for some time: KPIs have turned positive. Brent looks set to end 2017 over US$60/bbl, up 40% from the summer lows.
The attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure took out over 5% of global oil supply and temporarily pushed up prices by 20%. What does the attack say about the security of oil’s supply chain?
The 2020 collapse in oil price hasn’t just killed tight oil’s growth, it smashed volumes down in the space of just a few months. The big question is whether it will ever return to a growth path.
Although the Presidency does not officially begin until January 20th 2017, the dearth of concrete policy proposals leaves a high level of uncertainty around the priorities of a Trump administration.
As demand collapses, how will the market deal with oversupply? Find out in this week's Edge.
Will the effect of coronavirus be more lasting for demand or supply? Will the oil price be lower-for-longer? Or, if demand recovers, could the sharp reduction in upstream investment lead to a tighter market and higher prices? Find out more in this week's Edge.
Have we passed 'peak growth' for tight oil? What are the implications of slowing growth for the crude market? And how will pipeline owners adapt their strategies? Find out in this week's Edge.
Canada's investor sentiment soured by environmental concerns and competition for capital from tight oil have already begun to reshape the domestic corporate landscape.
More operators are hinting through this Q3 results season at redeploying rigs in the coming months, potentially kick starting what will be tight oil’s second great growth phase.
What are the key risks and uncertainties in 2019? Simon picks the ones our analysts worry could threaten our base case, including oil demand downside, tight oil upside and Iran export volumes.
US Lower 48 Independents’ finances are looking rosier as capital discipline and higher oil prices work their magic. Will a cash flow bonanza lead to more drilling?
Can a decade be a turning point? So much happened in the energy sector, the 2010s might be seen as just that.
What opportunities, challenges and risks does the world of energy and natural resources face in 2025? From geopolitics to Big Oil M&A and innovation in power. Our experts share their thoughts.
The energy sector faces a very different future under President-elect Biden. What are the implications for the oil market? How will key US geopolitical relationships change? And can a Biden administration push through its climate change goals?
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