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Persistent non-OPEC volume growth poses a challenge. Get our latest OPEC and non-OPEC supply forecasts.
OPEC+ output cuts hasten market tightening
Based on our analysis of supply and demand, a window is opening to absorb more OPEC+ oil.
OPEC’s plan for production cuts signals a desire to support prices, even if the battle to wrest control of the market seems barely half won.
How to sum up the effect on oil markets of OPEC’s strategy since 2014? Based on how the fundamentals have evolved, it's been a pretty mixed bag.
In any commodity market, the marginal supplier makes hay when the sun shines. Oil prices are rampant, but tight oil is not behaving quite as expected. I caught up with R.T. Dukes, Head of US Lower 48 oil supply.
Dwindling spare OPEC capacity leaves market vulnerable to disruption. Learn more.
The firmer oil price we expect can only embolden the already resurgent US tight oil industry which is on course to displace the 1 million b/d OPEC has cut within the year. Three main aspects of the decision stand out.
The OPEC+ ‘deal of the century’ last weekend changes oil market dynamics in the short run. Find out more in this week's Edge.
Will oil demand growth recover in 2020? Is global supply still growing apace? How is US tight oil investment and production being affected by negative investor sentiment? Have the production cuts of 2019 balanced the market? Do they need to be extended or adjusted? Will fundamentals or geopolitics determine oil prices? We answer some of the big questions on OPEC’s agenda ahead of its December meeting in Vienna.
Why have oil prices come under renewed downward pressure? Our Macro Oils team, led by Ed Rawle, sees three main reasons.
What’s the most unexpected outcome three years on from the price crash? There are a few contenders. OPEC’s zealous adherence to production restraint is right up there. US tight oil is another, briefly inconvenienced by low prices but now embarking on a second great phase of growth.
The first Edge was published in December 2015. To mark the 300th edition, here are our top game-changers in energy markets over the last eight years.
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
The coronavirus outbreak has derailed OPEC+, thrown the oil market into turmoil and sent an already unloved sector into freefall. What are the implications?
The oil price has been on a bull run for over a year. Fundamentals are improving with oil demand bouncing back towards pre-pandemic highs as the global economy recovers. But OPEC+ is also playing a key role in rebalancing the market after the crisis of 2020. How much further could prices go?
Arresting the explosive growth of US tight oil was a clear target of the price war after the OPEC+ meeting collapsed in March. What's been the effect on drilling and investment? How much will production fall and how quickly? Will tight oil recover and get back on a growth path? Find out more in this week's Edge.
The return of Iranian exports to the oil market in 2021 was a clear risk. If sanctions are lifted, how much oil could Iran produce and how quickly? What wiggle room would OPEC+ have to accommodate Iran's exports? What would be the effect on the oil price?
Government starts pulling the levers to bolster the economy
Where new oil supply to 2030 will come from and what it costs
2017 is set to be to be the third year Brent has traded at under half the heady levels of 2014.
Share price movements can be a good early indicator of changing fortunes. The oil and gas sector had a great month in September, jumping 8% and outperforming the broader global stock market by 6%. It’s more than just rotational buying.
The oil market has come to life, with prices finally delivering on our expectations for 2023. Our oil experts, Ann-Louise Hittle and Alan Gelder, join Simon Flowers to discuss where the market goes from here and what this could mean for the economy and politics.
Today’s geopolitical temperature is close to boiling point. So why haven’t oil prices leapt in response, as we’ve seen in the past?
What are the upstream investment strategies of big Gulf producers? And how much are they spending? Find out here. With analysis from Simon Flowers and Jessica Brewer.
What's driven the rally, what is the outlook for supply and demand fundamentals in 2022, and how will geopolitics, including the Russia/Ukraine crisis, play out?
We've had the best year for the oil and gas industry for some time: KPIs have turned positive. Brent looks set to end 2017 over US$60/bbl, up 40% from the summer lows.
The attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure took out over 5% of global oil supply and temporarily pushed up prices by 20%. What does the attack say about the security of oil’s supply chain?
The 2020 collapse in oil price hasn’t just killed tight oil’s growth, it smashed volumes down in the space of just a few months. The big question is whether it will ever return to a growth path.
Oil prices are on a roll, the 10% jump in January means Brent has tripled since the dark days of April 2020. How will the oil market develop in 2021 and can the price rise further still?
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