The impact of Russia's gas export strategy on US LNG Report

Insight 09 March 2016

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Report summary

With European LNG imports, including from the US, set to grow over the next 5 years, there is much speculation about Russia’s likely response. Will Russia’s gas strategy mimic that of Saudi Arabia’s oil strategy, will it seek to retain market share in Europe, pushing European gas prices to levels that force the shut-in of US LNG exports? Using Wood Mackenzie’s Global Gas Model, we have analysed the key factors that will influence US LNG export utilisation, including Russia’s export strategy.

Executive summary
Introduction
- An oversupplied global gas market
- Europe: the battleground for Russian gas and US LNG
Sensitivity analysis
- Methodology
  - Russian contracts supply and pricing
  - Determinants and cases
    - Determinants
    - Sensitivity results
      - Outcomes
        
        High oil price
        
        Low Oil Price
        
        Discussion
        
        US LNG exports
        
        Russia
        
        Russia pipe capacity and delivered cost
        
        Europe market share
        
        Profitability
        
        Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Global and European market flow changes 2015 to 2020 (Wood Mackenzie Base Case H2 2015)
Russia Pipe Imports to Europe (H2 2015 Wood Mackenzie Base Case)
LNG Imports to Europe (H2 2015 Wood Mackenzie Base Case)