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Global economic outlook Q1 2025: can momentum trump uncertainty?

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The global economy has good momentum. Fears of a global recession gave way to a ‘no landing’ reality after growth remained steady and at a good pace in 2024. Yet global growth is not synchronised. China had a difficult 2024, Europe's economy is sluggish, while the US powered ahead. Furthermore, uncertainty is high. US tariff hikes risk sparking a global trade war that could cause a global recession. Is momentum enough to offset the uncertainty and keep the global economy on a sustainable growth path?

Table of contents

  • Can momentum trump uncertainty?

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Global GDP
  • Industrial production
  • US real wages
  • US savings rates
  • US imports from Canada (2023)
  • US imports from Mexico (2023)
  • US trade balances (goods) and exports to the US share of GDP
  • China's growth by component
  • India's investment outlook

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global economic outlook Q1 2025: can momentum trump uncertainty?

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