Insight
Global economic outlook Q2 2024: sticky inflation delays rate cuts and growth pivot
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Report summary
We forecast global GDP growth to slow in 2024. Interest rate cuts in developed economies may be delayed and tempered as inflation looks sticky in key economies. However, we expect 2024 to be a pivotal year as consumption rebalances from services to goods, and investment accelerates as monetary conditions ease eventually. These drivers and the inventory cycle will aid a recovery in industrial production (IP) which slumped in 2023. We foresee IP accelerating in 2024 and 2025. Non-macroeconomic risks remain elevated. Top of the list are geopolitical shocks. Political uncertainty is high, with numerous pivotal elections slated for 2024, the outcomes of which will determine paths for fiscal and trade policy.
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