Insight
Global economic outlook Q2 2025: trade tensions bite
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Report summary
Wood Mackenzie has revised its global economic outlook downward due to trade tensions. Our forecast for global gross domestic product growth is 2.4% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Temporary pauses on the US reciprocal tariffs and US levies on Chinese imports have averted the worst-case economic impacts, for now. Given the tariff uncertainty, this update includes two scenarios: trade truce and trade war.
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