Insight
OPEC’s pain will shift to gain
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
OPEC is set to regain its dominance as the leading source of new oil supplies in the late 2020s as total non-OPEC supply growth plateaus around 2025, well before demand peaks. Our oil market service Macro Oils long term forecast shows OPEC's importance to the market will shift over the next decade from restraining production currently, to needing to grow capacity to meet demand. OPEC producers will hold sway over the market as the key source of growth through the mid-2030s, when oil demand peaks as the energy transition drives fuel efficiency gains and electrification of transport. However, non-OPEC producers will capture the bulk of contestable demand in the near term, driven primarily by increasing US tight oil production. This Insight explores the changing dynamics of the long term oil market fundamentals.
Table of contents
- OPEC to remain under pressure in short term
- US shale to peak in 2025
- Near-term conventional non-OPEC resilience will peter out post-2030
- OPEC also faces industry challenges
- Can OPEC overcome the challenges?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Year-on-year change in global production capacity
- US Lower 48 crude and condensate production
- Downside risks to demand
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Non-OPEC supply at US$50 Brent in 2025 and 2026
At US$50/bbl, US onshore Lower 48 shows the quickest and largest reaction, but it takes until 2026 to gain a sizeable effect
$1,350
Insight
2025 zinc benchmark TC: a new era or a strategic move?
The 2025 annual zinc benchmark contract treatment charge is understood to have been settled. Was this a strategic move by smelters?
$1,050
Insight
China's steel in its post-peak era
Decarbonising a financially fragile sector: Easier said than done
$1,050
