Coronavirus impact briefing: week ending 15 May

In week six of our weekly coronavirus impact briefing, forecasts for cases and fatality counts globally are rising with the spotlight on underreporting in emerging markets hot spots. The new Wuhan cluster raises concerns around re-infection and a second wave. The decline in trade and exports is an indicator of the global economic contraction under way, and poses a threat to industry as the world starts to move out of lockdown. We focus on China – the economy and commodity demand, and as the model for other nations to watch coming out of lockdown. Measures to stimulate the economy are feeding through to a recovery in energy demand. Power demand is back to normal, thermal coal demand above last year’s level, gas too has held up relatively well. Oil is improving but dampened by weak jet fuel. The fall in global trade is affecting China’s export markets, with metals demand into end-user products recovering more slowly.