Commodity Market Report
Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In 2025, Mexico’s energy markets are undergoing a significant recalibration. The post-Covid-19 recovery boom, once powered by nearshoring momentum and reopening tailwinds, has lost steam. Industrial gas demand, while recovering since early 2024, remains nearly 0.3 bcfd below our previous outlook due to the lasting impact of the downturn. Meanwhile, LNG has lost its role as a primary growth driver. On the power side, economic and climate-related pressures continue to strain Mexico’s power system. GDP forecasts now suggest a 5% lower load growth compared to our previous long-term view, aligning with downward GDP projections. The new government unveils an ambitious centralized energy plan amid a stagnant market. Distributed generation penetration is rising as consumers seek alternatives to a newly created regulatory environment. Storage is set to begin utility-scale operation around 2026.
Table of contents
- The post-Covid-19 recovery boom has lost momentum
- LNG is no longer positioned as a key growth engine for Mexico’s gas demand
- Economic factors and climate strain Mexico’s power system
- Mexico’s ambitious energy plan targets 29 GW of generation expansion by 2030
- The prolonged economic recovery from Covid-19 has taken its toll
- US piped gas is set to increase its market share significantly
- Economic growth, rising temperatures and extreme weather events put further pressure on energy loads.
- Following the 2024 presidential elections, the next administration must shift its strategy to accelerate investments in emissions-free power generation.
- Increase in indigenous supply offset by LNG feedgas
- Slower economic recovery to diminish gas demand
- Gas combined-cyles plants maintain their role as the key dispatchable source
- Mexico’s clean energy goals will not be achieved until mid 2030s
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Mexico gas and power at a glance
- Mexico energy market at a glance
What's included
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