Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Investment Horizon Outlook 2023
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector. Wood Mackenzie’s gas price forecast – a key component of our Base Case, the Mexico gas, power and renewables investment horizon outlook 2023 – projects a rebound in Henry Hub prices with the next wave of LNG exports with a price averaging US$3.1/MMBtu over the 2024-2027 period. The growth rate moderates in the following years, with prices averaging US$3.8/MMBtu during 2028-2035. In contrast, NYMEX futures suggest a higher pricing path for the 2024-2027 period, positioning Henry Hub prices near US$3.7/MMBtu, followed by a marginally lower average of US$3.6/MMBtu for 2028-2035.
Table of contents
- This NYMEX case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector’s long-term outlook.
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- NYMEX vs. Wood Mackenzie’s Henry Hub gas price forecast
- Annual average LMPs in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
- Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Absolute Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
- Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Percentage Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
What's included
This report contains:
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