Commodity Market Report
NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables Strategic Planning Outlook 2024
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and its impact on our long-term outlook on Mexico’s power sector. Wood Mackenzie’s gas price forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook) sees rising exports and resilient US domestic demand projected to drive Henry Hub prices above US$3.50/MMBtu by 2026, maintaining relative stability for the subsequent decade. This market expansion will be balanced by increasing associated supply and contributions from top-tier non-associated supply plays. However, accelerated depletion of low-cost supply, driven by robust market growth, is expected to lead to higher prices in the 2040s. Nonetheless, NYMEX gas forwards consider a much flatter trend, remaining closer to the US$3.0/MMBtu mark in the long term.
Table of contents
- This NYMEX case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector’s long-term outlook.
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- NYMEX vs. Wood Mackenzie’s Henry Hub gas price forecast
- Annual average LMPs in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
- Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Absolute Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
- Annual and Monthly Energy Prices’ Percentage Delta in key regions (NYMEX case vs. Base Case)
What's included
This report contains:
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