Insight
Global oil supply short-term update - July 2025
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. Although tensions in the Gulf region remain high following the Israel-Iran conflict, we assume the current ceasefire holds and that there continues to be no disruption to supply from the region. We still assume that OPEC+ maintains an accelerated return rate of production cuts, until the 2.2 million b/d tranche of cuts is fully unwound. With our demand outlook also remaining relatively unchanged, there is further downward pressure on prices over the near term, which acts to dampen non-OPEC supply growth. Changes to the outlook are minor this month. The most significant changes are an upgrade to US NGL, and a downgrade to US Gulf of Mexico. In this monthly update we have extended our short-term forecast through 2027.
Table of contents
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Global Supply: minor changes to the outlook as prices return to below $70/bbl
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to GoM offset by upgrades to US Lower 48 oil and NGL supply in 2026
- OPEC: key producers continue to unwind cuts as supply unaffected by conflict
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What's included
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