Tariff turmoil: how big a cost hit will US oil and gas operators take?

The Trump administration's 2025 tariff policies have the potential to significantly impact the US upstream oil and gas sector. Key measures include a 25% tariff on most imports from Mexico and Canada, with some exemptions, 25% on steel and aluminium, and escalating tariffs on China reaching 145% by April. These tariffs are expected to increase costs across various upstream sectors. Offshore projects could see cost increases up to 14.6%, whilst the US Lower 48 sector faces a potential 6% hike. The duration of these trade tensions will be crucial in determining long-term impacts. Suppliers and operators will need to consider restructuring or adjusting investment priorities, while continuing to focus on efficiency. Collaboration will be critical in ensuring that the gains made over the last few years can be maintained.